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A rough cut on feasibility - strategic-planning

 

A piano tuner in recent times moved to Buffalo, NY, and would like to assess the commerce promise for him in his new home. He plans to approximation how many piano tuners the larger Bully area can support, and equate that to the amount scheduled in the phone book. How do we direct him as to how to approximate the "right" digit of tuners for the area?

One approximate is austerely to guess. Would it be 1, 10, 50, or 100? Are you comfortable with this approach? I am not. An approximate I would be comfortable with would be to examination for data on estimates of how many piano tuners per capita there are in the U. S. , and apply that ratio to the Bully area inhabitants (let's use 1. 3 million). Is data on this apt to be available? Test your inventiveness by demanding to find it.

Assuming that data is not available, we must go to the "some building required" approximate to estimating, that is, deriving the approximate from data which is free custom-made by connected local and citizen data, norms, and "rules of thumb. " While this seems so indirect as to be diminutive develop than just guessing, it can be a very advantageous exercise. If nobody else, it causes us to classify some chief variables and how they attach to our commerce of interest. The inaccuracies of compounding estimates can be minimized by functioning in ranges to give us a "ballpark" figure.

How can I arise a carrying great weight approximation from in the main existing information? It would be attractive to know what percentage of American households own a piano, and how often they get it tuned. If the data is national, we may need to apply some local adjustment factor. Given the twelve-monthly add up to of piano tunings, we can allot by the once a year amount of a tuner to clarify how many are needed.

I will do an "off-the-top-of-my-head" answer to illustrate the method, then leave it to you to bestow real values:

Buffalo has about 400,000 households residents not speaking by 3 members average); 8% of American households own pianos. I can think of no argue to apply any local adjustment to this figure, so we are chatting about about 32,000 pianos. My guess is that two-thirds of all pianos are purely furniture, so that the remainder of about 11,000 are played consistently and in need of tuning. Tuners advise that a piano be serviced twice a year, but my guess is that the be an average of is maybe once a year for committed pianos, or 11,000 tunings per year.

A tuner can assistance 2 to 4 pianos a day; let us say 3 per day, 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year, or 750 tunings per year per tuner. To afford Buffalo's 11,000 yearly tunings would compel approximately 15 tuners. The phone book lists 9. Sounds promising!

How do you like this? How many would you have guessed devoid of this analysis? Does the consequence seem reasonable? A sufficient amount on which to base the breach of a business?

Could it have been done more scientifically? How? Would consideration with piano tuners and music food have been useful? Are there any journals worth consulting? Would a appraisal have helped?

Are pianos in seats other than homes? Are there tuners not programmed in the fair pages?

The Ballot of Retail Trade provides the be an average of amount of food per capita for a array of retail outlets. Based on their data, we can ascertain how well our future marketplace area is served on a family member basis for the type of affair we plan to start. For example, there is, on average, a stationery store for every 33,000 people; for every 26,000 associates there is one bookstore and one nursery school and plot bring store. The people can i imagine assistance a barber shop for every 2,200 residents, and a furniture store for every 3,000.

John B. Vinturella, Ph. D. has just about 40 years be subjected to as a management and strategic consultant, entrepreneur, author, and school professor. For 20 of those years, Dr. Vinturella was owner/president of a allotment business that he founded. He is a principal in affair break sites jbv. com and muddledconcept. com, and maintains affair and supporting blogs.


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